Model overview
The Galapagos Transformation Execution Risk Model
Transformations become increasingly likely to fail when the amount, interconnectedness and speed of change demanded of an organisation exceed its capacity to absorb, coordinate, learn from and execute that change.
Conceptual relationship. Transformation Execution Risk is proportional to (Change Load x Coupling) / Execution Capacity. The expression is conceptual, not a calibrated equation: load and coupling amplify each other, while capacity absorbs the result.
The four conditions the model tracks
Change Load
The amount and speed of material change demanded of the organisation.
Components: Breadth; Depth; Concurrency; Pace. Rated: Low / Moderate / High / Very High / Extreme.
Coupling
The degree to which the success, failure, timing or behaviour of one element affects other elements.
Components: Technical; data; process; resource; decision; organisational; supplier / regulatory / customer. Rated: Low / Moderate / High / Very High / Extreme.
Execution Capacity
The organisation's available ability to absorb, coordinate, learn from and execute transformational change.
Components: Human; Organisational; Delivery. Rated: Weak / Constrained / Adequate / Strong.
Evidence Loop
How quickly material assumptions are validated and credible evidence changes action.
Components: D4 Validation Lag; D5 Strategic Response Lag. Rated: Effective / Constrained / Not Yet Observable.
What the model does not claim
It does not calculate a probability of failure, produce a single weighted risk score, or treat high breadth and depth as inherently failing. Both pre-registered success cases in the research base carried extreme breadth and depth.